A spike in gas and energy prices following the breakout of conflict in Iran could spoil a positive outlook for the vehicle market in the spring.
The average gas price nationally jumped from $2.97 last week to $3.19 by Wednesday, according to AAA.
“The emerging conflict in the Middle East puts further stress on already fragile consumer confidence in the U.S., adding to the uncertainty fatigue among households,” said Jeremy Robb, Chief Economist for Cox Automotive. “Consumer sentiment remains well below year-ago levels. Higher energy costs, political uncertainty, and persistent headlines about global tension and conflict continue to negatively impact confidence. For many drivers of gas-powered vehicles, shifting prices at the pump will be a visible and immediate signal of that instability.
“Although global energy supply remains ample and higher prices can bring additional supply online over time, consumer sentiment tends to respond faster than markets. U.S. consumers are in a prolonged period of uncertainty, which has meaningful impacts on sentiment and direct implications for big-ticket purchases like vehicles and homes.”
Entering March, auto dealers expressed increasing optimism about the market.
Cox Automotive’s 2026 first-quarter Automotive Dealer Sentiment Index, which was based on responses from 1,031 dealers, rose to 41 from a historically low rating of 38 in the fourth quarter of 2025. Dealers’ outlook for the next three months was mostly positive, with the index at 56, rallying from a dim outlook of 42 to end 2025.
Dealers’ view of the current used-vehicle sales environment improved from 42 in the fourth quarter to 44 on the index. The 499 independent dealers surveyed had the same view as in the fourth quarter of 2025, with the index staying at 39.
Before the recent outbreak of conflict, 52 percent of dealers stated the economy was holding business back.
