2024 used vehicle sales forecast stays stable

Used vehicle sales are not expected to grow from last year

According to Cox Automotive’s midyear forecast, used vehicle sales are expected to finish 2024 at 36.8 million. That is on par with the revised forecast by Cox Automotive at the end of the first quarter.

Used retail sales projections remained at 19.6 million.

Certified pre-owned sales remained at 2.7 million, with Cox Automotive Chief Economic Jonathan Smoke noting a lack of available vehicles limiting the sector.

Used retail prices for 3-year-old vehicles have fallen by 8 percent from the start of the year, according to Manheim and Cox data. Wholesale prices are down 6.2 percent in the same time.

Used vehicle retail inventory remains above last year at more than 2.2 million units. The days of supply have fallen to 46 days.

Cox Automotive’s Dealer Sentiment Index showed dealers are concerned about the current market with only 42 percent expressing a favorable view. That was up slightly from 40 percent at the start of the year. Among independent dealers, 40 percent expressed a favorable view of the market. Only 40 percent had a favorable view of the economy. A majority of dealers stated interest rates and the economy were holding business back.

New car rates are at a 24-year high, according to Smoke.

“Dealers are worried where the economy is headed,” Smoke said.

The pending election is also having an impact on the automotive market, according to Cox Automotive’s Election Research, which included surveys with 529 auto shoppers and 1,026 auto dealers. Inflation was their top concern with 74 percent of consumers and 80 percent of dealers believing the next election will impact inflation.

Cox Automotive Executive Analyst Erin Keating said the election data shows consumers are taking a “wait-and-see” approach to the market.

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