Cox Automotive’s latest forecast projects 20.5 million used retail sales and 38.5 million total used-vehicle sales in 2026. The updated outlook reflects continued demand in the used market, even as affordability challenges remain for many consumers.
Cox Automotive says new-vehicle sales have remained relatively strong, supported by wealthier buyers, fleet sales and improved access to credit. At the same time, elevated inflation and historically low consumer confidence continue to weigh on the broader market. Affordability pressures remain an important consideration for buyers across vehicle segments.
Cox has raised its full-year new-vehicle sales forecast to 16.1 million units, up from its previous projection of 15.8 million. New-vehicle sales can provide a source of trade-ins for the used market, although the number of vehicles reaching wholesale channels will also depend on trade-in and retailing decisions.
Leasing is another trend to watch. Cox forecasts 3 million new-vehicle leases in 2026, with lease penetration at 23%. The loss of the federal EV tax credit has added pressure to leasing activity. Current lease volumes will help shape the supply of off-lease vehicles in future years.
For independent dealers, acquisition costs, customer access to credit and changing affordability conditions remain important factors to monitor as the year progresses.
