For independent dealers, July’s national sales figures point to a market where affordability — not simple demand — is driving buyer decisions. As new-vehicle prices and interest rates stay elevated, more shoppers are turning to the used-car lot, and rising off-lease supply is giving dealers fresh inventory to work with.
New-vehicle sales reached an estimated 1.36 million units in July, according to Cox Automotive, translating to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.3 million — the strongest pace of 2026 and up 1.2% from June. Still, the figure landed below early-month forecasts and down 1.8% from July 2025, when expiring EV tax credits had pulled sales forward. Year-to-date, the industry is running at a 16.0 million pace, slightly ahead of Cox’s full-year forecast of 15.82 million.
The average new-vehicle transaction price hit $49,339, with financing rates near 9.9%, prompting a shift toward smaller, more affordable models.
On the used side, Manheim’s Used Vehicle Value Index stood at 211.5 in mid-July, up 2% year-over-year but down 0.6% from June. Wholesale supply climbed to 28 days, up 1.5 days from a year ago, as more off-lease vehicles entered the market — a potential inventory boost for independent dealers heading into fall.
