For independent dealers watching acquisition costs, July’s wholesale numbers offer a useful gut-check on inventory strategy heading into fall. Wholesale vehicle values declined last month as normal seasonal depreciation set in following the spring pricing peak, according to new data from Black Book and Cox Automotive.
Black Book’s Used Vehicle Retention Index fell to 146.0 in July, down 0.9% from June and 0.3% year-over-year. Cox Automotive’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index closed at 210, down 1.4% month-over-month but still up 1.3% compared to a year ago.
Analysts pointed to affordability pressures and fuel costs as key factors shaping buyer behavior. Compact and midsize cars posted month-over-month gains as consumers prioritized fuel efficiency amid elevated gas prices, while limited supply in those segments — a result of years of reduced production — helped support values. Performance varied widely by category: compact cars rose 4.1% year-over-year, while pickups fell 2.3%, SUVs/CUVs dropped 1.7%, and midsize crossovers slid 1.5%.
Electric vehicles stood out, climbing 10.5% year-over-year and holding more than 4% market share — a first for 2026 — though EV values eased 2.1% month-over-month. Cox Automotive’s Jonathan Gregory said affordability remains “the bigger picture” for the market heading into fall.
