Used vehicle sales are expected to finish 2.3 percent ahead of the original forecast for 2025.
In its Third Quarter Industry Insights and Sales Forecast Call Sept. 25, Cox Automotive updated its full-year 2025 forecast. The new projection called for between 37.9 million and 38.5 million used cars. Cox Automotive’s original forecast was 37.8 million.
While the forecast is slightly upgraded, Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke warned of a slowing of the market in the fourth quarter, especially with new vehicles.
“I would say that fourth-quarter pace is likely to set the pace for 2026,” Smoke said. “The modest slowing we are expecting is driven by supply shifts and constraints from the impacts of tariffs, as well as the decline in EVs.
“Used is expected to be more stable as affordability in new pushes more consumers into used. However, the used market remains constrained by supply and used vehicle values will hold up at the level we’re seeing now.”
Used vehicle sales are seasonally stronger than in the past few years. Sales into September were running 3.5 percent ahead of 2024.
“Used vehicles began showing moderate strength over the past month,” said Jonathan Gregory, Senior Manager of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. “Looking at the year-to-date picture, estimated sales have been performing quite solidly, up 4.1 percent compared to last year. This indicates we’re maintaining steady demand despite the various economic headwinds we’ve been facing.”
The days of supply of inventory is at 44.3 days, 1.5 percent below 2024.
